COVID-19
Contents
Overview
The COVID-19 virus (or novel coronavirus) is a highly contagious and unusually lethal pathogen whose spread across the globe has led the World Health Organization to declare it a pandemic. It originated in Wuhan, China in late 2019 and spread to Europe and the United States by early 2020.[1] It poses the greatest global public health risk since the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic.
This page reflects my attempt to make sense of the pandemic and how it has affected my life and community in Orange County, California.
Why It's Serious
Exponential Growth
Virulence
Novelty
Why You Should Be Personally Worried
I see three important reasons to be personally worried. First, it is unusually fatal and even when it does not kill you can do serious damage to your personal health. Here's the first first-hand account I came across describing how serious even a non-fatal case can be for a health person. It also reveals what a mess the American response to the virus has been:
For a graphic example of the toll the disease can take on a healthy person, see these before-and-after photos shared by a Bay Area nurse who contracted the disease:
Even after recovery, many patients report serious ongoing health complications. Moreover, although the virus generally goes easier on young healthy people, they can still be a vector of transfer to more vulnerable older people.[2] So keep your parents, grandparents, and neighbors in mind as you weigh the risks.
The second reason is social and economic. The virus has cause mass unemployment and social disruption. While stock markets have so far remained strong after an initial scare, many shops and restaurants (the parts of the economy dearest to me) have closed.
The epidemic also threatens wider social disruption as depicted in the movie Contagion:
The final reason to take this disease seriously is the potential personal financial impact. Although politicians have promised that government will offset costs of the disease, actual policy in the United States will largely driven by the private for-profit companies that dominate the American health care system. For an example of the headaches if not total utter financial ruin this may cause people who require medical treatment, see this article:
Reopening America
Checklists, Guidelines, and Roadmaps
Why Social Distancing Matters
To understand the importance of social distancing measures, see this excellent Washington Post simulation:
Even if it only slows down the spread of the virus, this can be critical as it can help keep the medical system from being overwhelmed as it was in China and Italy. The goal is to "flatten the curve":
Forecasts
Data
Additional Information
For additional information that I have been collecting, see my Pinboard bookmarks:
References
- ↑ For a well documented timelines, see this NY Times article: https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-timeline.html
- ↑ See this comparison of Italy and South Korea for insights into the role of age: https://medium.com/@andreasbackhausab/coronavirus-why-its-so-deadly-in-italy-c4200a15a7bf
