Difference between revisions of "COVID-19"

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== Overview ==
 
== Overview ==
−
The [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019 COVID-19 virus] (or novel coronavirus) is a highly contagious and unusually lethal pathogen whose spread across the globe has led the [https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020 World Health Organization to declare it a pandemic]. It originated in Wuhan, China in late 2019 and spread to Europe and the United States by early 2020.<ref>For a well documented timelines, see this NY Times article: https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-timeline.html</ref> It poses the greatest global public health risk since the [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu 1918 Spanish flu pandemic].
+
The [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019 COVID-19 virus] (or novel coronavirus) is a highly contagious and unusually lethal pathogen whose spread across the globe has led the [https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020 World Health Organization to declare it a pandemic]. It originated in Wuhan, China in late 2019 and spread to Europe and the United States by early 2020.<ref>For a well documented timeline, see this NY Times article: https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-timeline.html</ref> It poses the greatest global public health risk since the [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu 1918 Spanish flu pandemic].
  
−
This page reflects my attempt to make sense of the pandemic and how it has affected my life and community in Orange County, California.
+
This page reflects my attempt to make sense of the pandemic and how it has affected my life and community in Orange County, California. This article by Ed Yong in The Atlantic provided the most informed comprehensive account I have read on the topic:
 +
 
 +
* [https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/ How the Pandemic Will End]
 +
 
 +
== Updates ==
 +
* '''2022.05.27''' Oxford Professor Trisha Greenhalgh warns [https://twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh/status/1530101534284996608 pandemic is not over] as [https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1529965612956405761 three new more pathogenic Omicron variants detected].
 +
* '''2022.02.08''' Eric Feigl-Ding warns about [https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1491309604692951040 Omnicron 2.0].
 +
* '''2021.07.30''' Bob Wachter, Chair of the UCSF Department of Medicine, [https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1420974027112292354 summarizes the new CDC announcement on the Delta variant].
 +
* '''2021.04.20''' I receive [https://ocfair.com/county-opens-vaccine-super-pod-at-oc-fair-event-center/ my first vaccination shot].
 +
* '''2020.10.01''' [https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/02/us/politics/trump-covid.html President Trump reveals he has tested positive for the coronavirus].
 +
* '''2020.03.11''' [https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/fh8e8c/charania_the_nba_has_suspended_its_season/ NBA suspends its season due to COVID-19 outbreak.]
  
 
== Why It's Serious ==
 
== Why It's Serious ==
 
=== Exponential Growth ===
 
=== Exponential Growth ===
 +
Viruses like this spread exponentially where most humans tend to think of things in linear terms. As one Hacker News commentator put
 +
it:
 +
 +
<blockquote>''Human beings do not intuitively understand exponential growth. It's just too fast for our primitive brains. In some sense, we are standing in the middle of the road, frozen like deer in the headlights.''<ref>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22580753</ref></blockquote>
 +
 +
This Washington Post article did a great job of demonstrating how explosively the virus could spread:
 +
 +
* https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
 +
 
=== Virulence ===
 
=== Virulence ===
 +
This graph provided by the NY Times in February 2020, before the virus had spread widely in America, helped me first understand why public health experts were so much more concerned about this novel coronavirus than the flu:
 +
 +
* https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html#virulence
 +
 +
In short, the virus is both deadlier and more contagious than the flu.<ref>https://www.propublica.org/article/this-coronavirus-is-unlike-anything-in-our-lifetime-and-we-have-to-stop-comparing-it-to-the-flu</ref>
 +
 
=== Novelty ===
 
=== Novelty ===
 +
Most humans have no acquired immunity to the virus. A vaccine is unlikely for 2-4 years.<ref>''How quickly a vaccine can be rolled out is another matter. I have a bet with a colleague at the Scripps Institute. He thinks it will be four years. I think it will be 18 months...'' — https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v42/n10/rupert-beale/short-cuts</ref> We have no sure idea how society will respond to the crisis.
 +
 
=== Why You Should Be Personally Worried ===
 
=== Why You Should Be Personally Worried ===
−
I see three important reasons to be personally worried. First, it is unusually fatal and even when it does not kill you can do serious damage to '''your personal health'''. Here's the first first-hand account I came across describing how serious even a non-fatal case can be for a health person. It also reveals what a mess the American response to the virus has been:
+
==== Your Health ====
 +
Covid-19 is unusually fatal and even when it does not kill you can do serious damage to your personal health. Here's the first first-hand account I came across describing how serious even a non-fatal case can be for a health person. It also foresaw what a mess the American response to the virus has been:
  
 
* https://medium.com/@cdmj/a-colorado-covid-19-story-61466a56811
 
* https://medium.com/@cdmj/a-colorado-covid-19-story-61466a56811
Line 17: Line 45:
 
* https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/gn0d05/what_mike_schultz_looked_like_after_battling/
 
* https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/gn0d05/what_mike_schultz_looked_like_after_battling/
  
−
Even after recovery, many patients report serious ongoing health complications. Moreover, although the virus generally goes easier on young healthy people, they can still be a vector of transfer to more vulnerable older people.<ref>See this comparison of Italy and South Korea for insights into the role of age: https://medium.com/@andreasbackhausab/coronavirus-why-its-so-deadly-in-italy-c4200a15a7bf</ref> So keep your parents, grandparents, and neighbors in mind as you weigh the risks.
+
The disease is unpredictable and symptoms can persist for months. This Atlantic article describes the plight of "long-haulers", people with technically "mild" cases who suffer "relentless waves of debilitating symptoms":
 +
 
 +
* https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/06/covid-19-coronavirus-longterm-symptoms-months/612679/
 +
 
 +
Even after recovery, many patients report serious ongoing health complications. The loss of taste and smell associated with the disease is often treated as a curiosity. But it's impact on quality of life should not be underestimated:
 +
 
 +
* https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23385816
 +
 
 +
Finally, although statistics indicate the virus generally goes easier on young healthy people, they can still be a vector of transfer to more vulnerable older people.<ref>See this comparison of Italy and South Korea for insights into the role of age: https://medium.com/@andreasbackhausab/coronavirus-why-its-so-deadly-in-italy-c4200a15a7bf</ref> So keep your parents, grandparents, and neighbors in mind as you weigh the risks.
  
−
The second reason is '''social and economic'''. The virus has cause mass unemployment and social disruption. While stock markets have so far remained strong after an initial scare, many shops and restaurants (the parts of the economy dearest to me) have closed.
+
==== Your Finances ====
 +
Although politicians have promised that government will offset costs of the disease, actual policy in the United States will largely driven by the private for-profit companies that dominate the American health care system. For an example of the hardships, if not total utter financial ruin, this may cause people who require medical treatment, see this New York Times article:
  
−
The epidemic also threatens wider social disruption as depicted in the movie [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contagion_(2011_film) Contagion]:
+
* https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/upshot/coronavirus-surprise-medical-bills.html
 +
 
 +
==== Social and Economic Disruption ====
 +
The virus has caused mass unemployment and social disruption. While stock markets have so far remained strong after an early scare, many shops and restaurants (the parts of the economy dearest to me) have closed.
 +
 
 +
In the United States, misinformation spread by [https://web.archive.org/web/20200419065119/https://np.reddit.com/r/maryland/comments/g3niq3/i_simply_cannot_believe_that_people_are/fnstpyl/ right-wing political organizations] and [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ch7_t2Ri2Zg dishonest public officials] has already fueled protests and increased political polarization.
 +
 
 +
If the epidemic persists and is not effectively controlled, it also threatens wider social disruption like that depicted in the movie [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contagion_(2011_film) Contagion]:
  
 
* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdedwD2ZZiU
 
* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdedwD2ZZiU
  
−
The final reason to take this disease seriously is the potential '''personal financial impact'''. Although politicians have promised that government will offset costs of the disease, actual policy in the United States will largely driven by the private for-profit companies that dominate the American health care system. For an example of the headaches if not total utter financial ruin this may cause people who require medical treatment, see this article:
+
==== Why Worry? The Fatal Rate is Less than 1% ====
 +
I answered this on Reddit:
  
−
* https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/local-news/evans-man-shocked-by-139-254-medical-bill-for-covid-19-treatment
+
* https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusOC/comments/hg3gva/what_am_i_missing_not_understanding_some_peoples/fw2ghxq/
  
 
== Reopening America ==
 
== Reopening America ==
 
=== Checklists, Guidelines, and Roadmaps ===
 
=== Checklists, Guidelines, and Roadmaps ===
 +
* [https://ethics.harvard.edu/files/center-for-ethics/files/roadmaptopandemicresilience_updated_4.20.20_1.pdf Harvard Safra Center Roadmap]
 +
* [https://covid19.ca.gov/roadmap/ California Roadmap]
 +
* [https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/community/workplace-decision-tree.pdf CDC Workplace Guidelines]
 +
* https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/
 +
* https://covidactnow.org/
  
 
=== Why Social Distancing Matters ===
 
=== Why Social Distancing Matters ===
Line 41: Line 91:
 
* https://flowingdata.com/2020/03/09/flatten-the-coronavirus-curve/
 
* https://flowingdata.com/2020/03/09/flatten-the-coronavirus-curve/
  
−
== Forecasts ==
+
=== The Risks ===
 +
To understand the risks you face in going out in public before a reliable vaccine or treatment is available, I highly recommend this article by Biology professor Dr. Erin Bromage:
 +
 
 +
* https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them
  
 
== Data ==
 
== Data ==
 +
=== My Google Sheets ===
 +
My company has offices in Costa Mesa, CA and Grand Rapids, MI. Within a few days of the United States declaring a national emergency on March 13th, we started working full-time from home. In May, when we started talking about returning to the office, I put together these tables and charts to give me a better view of the state of the epidemic:
 +
 +
* [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSxCDL6xIQll_G3zW737SwkjB_Y9i5stL6ccF4Z3jFCLgaLDcrWIfquzc99DnYk_QUQQuiQbsgsXiJQ/pubhtml Orange County COVID-19 Data]
 +
** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSxCDL6xIQll_G3zW737SwkjB_Y9i5stL6ccF4Z3jFCLgaLDcrWIfquzc99DnYk_QUQQuiQbsgsXiJQ/pubhtml?gid=435327599 Latest Charts]
 +
** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSxCDL6xIQll_G3zW737SwkjB_Y9i5stL6ccF4Z3jFCLgaLDcrWIfquzc99DnYk_QUQQuiQbsgsXiJQ/pubhtml?gid=2022544454 Reopen Guide]
 +
* [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vR2F8zt3PfcfeGe1-ReqTr1y2VXF0jDO98QjTdmht1XHOtLCbUBompPYzTM_pdqpJ_urG9Q19lYld7b/pubhtml Kent County, MI COVID-19 Data]
 +
** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vR2F8zt3PfcfeGe1-ReqTr1y2VXF0jDO98QjTdmht1XHOtLCbUBompPYzTM_pdqpJ_urG9Q19lYld7b/pubhtml?gid=2022544454 Reopen Guide]
 +
* [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQSSp19amBFUtHvw_u1vZCjuz7-ezC3YZYr6qE72qHvbAi8cXoQE54oc1tbvHqWi-lMjH_m8lrbAAfM/pubhtml United States COVID-19 Data]
 +
** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQSSp19amBFUtHvw_u1vZCjuz7-ezC3YZYr6qE72qHvbAi8cXoQE54oc1tbvHqWi-lMjH_m8lrbAAfM/pubhtml?gid=2022544454 Reopen Guide]
 +
 +
=== Public Sources ===
 +
* United States: https://covidtracking.com
 +
* Orange County, CA: https://occovid19.ochealthinfo.com/coronavirus-in-oc
 +
* Michigan: https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98163_98173---,00.html
 +
* Effective Reproduction Rate: https://covid19-projections.com
  
 
== Additional Information ==
 
== Additional Information ==
 +
=== Reddit Communities ===
 +
* https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/
 +
* https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusCA/
 +
* https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusOC/
 +
* https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19positive/
 +
 +
=== Pinboard Bookmarks ===
 
For additional information that I have been collecting, see my Pinboard bookmarks:
 
For additional information that I have been collecting, see my Pinboard bookmarks:
  
 
* [https://pinboard.in/u:tatwell/t:covid19/ covid19]
 
* [https://pinboard.in/u:tatwell/t:covid19/ covid19]
 
* [https://pinboard.in/u:tatwell/t:c19-reopen/ c19-reopen]
 
* [https://pinboard.in/u:tatwell/t:c19-reopen/ c19-reopen]
 +
* [https://pinboard.in/u:tatwell/t:covid19/t:data/ covid19 data]
  
 
== References ==
 
== References ==

Latest revision as of 09:41, 28 May 2022

Overview

The COVID-19 virus (or novel coronavirus) is a highly contagious and unusually lethal pathogen whose spread across the globe has led the World Health Organization to declare it a pandemic. It originated in Wuhan, China in late 2019 and spread to Europe and the United States by early 2020.[1] It poses the greatest global public health risk since the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic.

This page reflects my attempt to make sense of the pandemic and how it has affected my life and community in Orange County, California. This article by Ed Yong in The Atlantic provided the most informed comprehensive account I have read on the topic:

Updates

Why It's Serious

Exponential Growth

Viruses like this spread exponentially where most humans tend to think of things in linear terms. As one Hacker News commentator put it:

Human beings do not intuitively understand exponential growth. It's just too fast for our primitive brains. In some sense, we are standing in the middle of the road, frozen like deer in the headlights.[2]

This Washington Post article did a great job of demonstrating how explosively the virus could spread:

Virulence

This graph provided by the NY Times in February 2020, before the virus had spread widely in America, helped me first understand why public health experts were so much more concerned about this novel coronavirus than the flu:

In short, the virus is both deadlier and more contagious than the flu.[3]

Novelty

Most humans have no acquired immunity to the virus. A vaccine is unlikely for 2-4 years.[4] We have no sure idea how society will respond to the crisis.

Why You Should Be Personally Worried

Your Health

Covid-19 is unusually fatal and even when it does not kill you can do serious damage to your personal health. Here's the first first-hand account I came across describing how serious even a non-fatal case can be for a health person. It also foresaw what a mess the American response to the virus has been:

For a graphic example of the toll the disease can take on a healthy person, see these before-and-after photos shared by a Bay Area nurse who contracted the disease:

The disease is unpredictable and symptoms can persist for months. This Atlantic article describes the plight of "long-haulers", people with technically "mild" cases who suffer "relentless waves of debilitating symptoms":

Even after recovery, many patients report serious ongoing health complications. The loss of taste and smell associated with the disease is often treated as a curiosity. But it's impact on quality of life should not be underestimated:

Finally, although statistics indicate the virus generally goes easier on young healthy people, they can still be a vector of transfer to more vulnerable older people.[5] So keep your parents, grandparents, and neighbors in mind as you weigh the risks.

Your Finances

Although politicians have promised that government will offset costs of the disease, actual policy in the United States will largely driven by the private for-profit companies that dominate the American health care system. For an example of the hardships, if not total utter financial ruin, this may cause people who require medical treatment, see this New York Times article:

Social and Economic Disruption

The virus has caused mass unemployment and social disruption. While stock markets have so far remained strong after an early scare, many shops and restaurants (the parts of the economy dearest to me) have closed.

In the United States, misinformation spread by right-wing political organizations and dishonest public officials has already fueled protests and increased political polarization.

If the epidemic persists and is not effectively controlled, it also threatens wider social disruption like that depicted in the movie Contagion:

Why Worry? The Fatal Rate is Less than 1%

I answered this on Reddit:

Reopening America

Checklists, Guidelines, and Roadmaps

Why Social Distancing Matters

To understand the importance of social distancing measures, see this excellent Washington Post simulation:

Even if it only slows down the spread of the virus, this can be critical as it can help keep the medical system from being overwhelmed as it was in China and Italy. The goal is to "flatten the curve":

The Risks

To understand the risks you face in going out in public before a reliable vaccine or treatment is available, I highly recommend this article by Biology professor Dr. Erin Bromage:

Data

My Google Sheets

My company has offices in Costa Mesa, CA and Grand Rapids, MI. Within a few days of the United States declaring a national emergency on March 13th, we started working full-time from home. In May, when we started talking about returning to the office, I put together these tables and charts to give me a better view of the state of the epidemic:

Public Sources

Additional Information

Reddit Communities

Pinboard Bookmarks

For additional information that I have been collecting, see my Pinboard bookmarks:

References

  1. ↑ For a well documented timeline, see this NY Times article: https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-timeline.html
  2. ↑ https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22580753
  3. ↑ https://www.propublica.org/article/this-coronavirus-is-unlike-anything-in-our-lifetime-and-we-have-to-stop-comparing-it-to-the-flu
  4. ↑ How quickly a vaccine can be rolled out is another matter. I have a bet with a colleague at the Scripps Institute. He thinks it will be four years. I think it will be 18 months... — https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v42/n10/rupert-beale/short-cuts
  5. ↑ See this comparison of Italy and South Korea for insights into the role of age: https://medium.com/@andreasbackhausab/coronavirus-why-its-so-deadly-in-italy-c4200a15a7bf
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